The car is bought, the title is in the safe. A good feeling of ownership. But this feeling can be deceptive. Because at the end of the day, a car is not a gold bar, but a utility item in a volatile market.
When buying cash or with classic financing (with a balloon payment you have to pay), you bear the full residual value risk. You are betting that your car will still be worth Sum X in 3 or 4 years. But the market is unpredictable, and political or technological decisions can destroy your wealth overnight.
Three Scenarios That Ruined Owners
1. The Tesla Effect (2023)
For years, Teslas were extremely stable in value. You could buy them, drive them for 6 months, and sell them almost for the new price. Many thought this would go on forever. Then, in early 2023, Elon Musk decided to massively cut new car prices (sometimes by €10,000 overnight) to secure market share.
The result: Anyone who had a used Tesla for €50,000 suddenly had to watch it become worth only €40,000. Used car prices always follow the current new car price. Those who leased laughed. They just returned the car. Those who bought realized gigantic losses.
2. The Diesel Shock
Remember the time before 2015? Diesel was considered clean and economical. Then came the emissions scandal. Suddenly driving bans threatened inside cities. Dealers no longer accepted Diesels as trade-ins or only with massive deductions. The "safe asset" in the garage became a burden.
3. The Tech Leap in EVs
Electric cars develop as fast as smartphones. An EV from 2018 often has only half the charging speed and range of a current model. Anyone buying an EV today is betting that batteries won't be twice as good and half as expensive in 5 years. If they are, the old car is unsellable (or very cheap).
Leasing as a "Put Option"
In financial terms, leasing is a so-called put option. You buy the right to return the asset (car) to the dealer at a predetermined price (residual value) – no matter what the market price actually is.
The Bank Bears the Risk
If the market price after 3 years is below the calculated residual value (because Elon Musk lowered prices), the leasing bank makes a loss when reselling the car. That is not your problem. You hand over the keys and walk away.
In stable markets (formerly: VW Golf Gasoline), the residual value risk was small. Values were easy to estimate. That's why leasing – even if it looks more expensive due to interest – is often the safest insurance against wealth loss, especially with modern cars.
Nothing is Free: The Insurance Premium
Of course, banks also know about this risk. For cars with uncertain residual value (e.g. exotic brands or luxury EVs), they therefore set the leasing rate higher from the start. So you pay an implicit insurance premium for this protection. It is a bet: Does the car lose more value than the bank thought? Then you won.
The Way Out: Buying Young Used Cars
The residual value risk is highest when buying a new car. If you buy a 3-year-old used car instead, the first owner (or lease company) has already paid for the biggest depreciation. The curve flattens out. Those who buy smartly (conservative models, good entry price) can minimize the risk without leasing.
Conclusion
Ownership implies obligations – including bearing market risks. If you buy a car, become a market expert. If you just want to drive without squinting at used car stock prices, the return option of leasing is worth gold.